Business Context & Strategy

Goal of this chapter: Understand the 3 core business questions this project answers, how restaurants are divided into 4 actionable quadrants, and how priority scores are computed.

1. The 3 Core Business Questions

Every decision made by this system revolves around answering three fundamental questions for Hungry Hub’s commercial team:

graph TD
    Q1["<b>Question 1: Who needs promotion?</b><br/>Find restaurants with high conversion and great guest reviews that haven't had recent marketing."]
    Q2["<b>Question 2: Who is at risk?</b><br/>Detect partner restaurants whose sales are dropping before they cancel their Hungry Hub contract."]
    Q3["<b>Question 3: Where does ad spend produce real lift?</b><br/>Identify which restaurants actually grow when advertised, vs those that sell anyway without ads."]

1. Who needs marketing support?
   We want to find high-potential restaurants with great menus, strong review ratings, and good organic interest that simply haven’t received enough promotional exposure in the past 30 to 60 days.
2. Who is in danger of churning?
   If a top-earning restaurant experiences 4 consecutive weeks of declining covers (guest counts), their management might think Hungry Hub isn’t working for them. We need to alert Account Managers early.
3. Where does marketing budget deliver real incremental return?
   Some famous restaurants sell out every table on their own without ads. Spending company marketing money on them wastes budget. We want to fund restaurants where marketing creates incremental bookings (sales that wouldn’t have happened otherwise).

2. The 4 Business Quadrants (Segments)

Every restaurant in the universe is evaluated along two axes:

• X-Axis (Marketing Exposure): How much promotional push has the restaurant received recently? (Measured across Facebook ad spend, KOL visits, and app push blasts).
• Y-Axis (Sales & Booking Performance): How strong are the restaurant’s confirmed sales, cover volume, review scores, and booking momentum?

Based on these two axes, each restaurant falls into one of four quadrants:

        High Performance (Strong Bookings & Growth)
                           ▲
                           │
       QUADRANT 1          │          QUADRANT 3
   High Performance,       │      Core Cash Cows
     Under-Promoted        │     (High Perf, Promoted)
    ("Hidden Gems")        │
                           │
  ─────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────► High Marketing
                           │                           Exposure (Ads/KOL)
       QUADRANT 2          │          QUADRANT 4
       High Risk /         │        Deprioritize
     Needs Attention       │    (Low Perf, Over-Promoted)
                           │
                           ▼
         Low Performance (Declining Bookings & Covers)

Deep Dive into the 4 Quadrants:

3. Strategic Overlay Badges

In addition to the primary 4 quadrants, the system tags specific restaurants with automated badges to help marketers filter quickly:

• 💎 Hidden Gem: High organic conversion rate with zero marketing spend in the last 60 days. (Highest ROI opportunity).
• ⚠️ Churn Risk: Significant drop in covers over the last 4 weeks compared to historical baseline.
• 🚀 Rising Star: Newly onboarded restaurant (<90 days old) showing fast week-over-week booking acceleration.
• 🛑 Over-Promoted: High marketing expenditure relative to generated GMV over the last 30 days.

4. How the “Marketing Priority” Ranking Works

The Marketing Priority sorting order on the dashboard is the default view designed for campaign planners. It balances three ingredients:

$$\text{Priority Score} = (\text{Predicted Sales Momentum} \times 0.50) + (\text{Under-Promotion Factor} \times 0.35) + (\text{Review Score Rating} \times 0.15)$$

• Predicted Sales Momentum (50%): Derived from the machine learning model (core_v2), rewarding restaurants poised for growth.
• Under-Promotion Factor (35%): Higher score if the restaurant hasn’t received paid ads or push notifications recently.
• Customer Satisfaction (15%): Ensures we do not push restaurants with poor food quality or low diner ratings.

5. Non-Monetary Marketing Channels (App Push & Email)

Not all marketing costs money directly. For channels like Mobile Push Notifications and Email Blasts, there is no per-restaurant ad spend in Thai Baht.

Important

The system tracks non-monetary marketing by Sent Counts (e.g., “14 Sent”, “2 Sent”).
In the past, dashboards showed ฿0 for these channels, confusing marketers into thinking no promotion was done. The new system displays the exact number of campaign broadcasts delivered.

6. Next Steps

To see which database tables and SQL rules feed into these segments, proceed to 03. Architecture & Data Pipeline.